Pili, G. (2021). “Why HAL 9000 is not the future of intelligence analysis: Intelligence analysis in the 21st century.” The Journal of Intelligence, Conflict, and Warfare, 4(1), 40–60. https://doi.org/10.21810/jicw.v4i1.2566
Abstract
Intelligence analysis is a core function of the intelligence process, and its goal is to synthesize reliable information to assist decision-makers to take a course of action toward an uncertain future. There is no escape from uncertainty, friction, and the fog of war. Since the dawn of human history, the present moment has been experienced as unpredictable, and the challenge of determining the right future through sound decisions has always existed. Investing in new technology, continually touted as the answer for analytic troubles, seems far less difficult in the short run than trying to find consensus about a long-term vision. It is easier to develop a nuclear missile, for example, than to give a universal definition of peace, and this is what the history of the XX century was all about. While intelligence analysis is still a necessary tool for decision-makers, it is unclear who or what will perform this function in the future. Though the solution cannot be only technological, the current trajectory tells a different story whereby the human analysts are removed from their central position to make way for Artificial Intelligence.
“And now something completely different,” would have said Monty Phyton Flying Circus. Probably something completely unheard of by our intelligence readers. However, for those who follow Scuola Filosofica, Tolkien is not a new entry, as it’s not Claudio A. Testi. But as many of you know, I love anecdotes (and I’m just 34!). Everything started in 2013 when I was waiting to get a PhD candidacy. A frantic activity was undergoing. I filled tons of papers for the beloved Italian bureaucracy every day (something I would have recommended to Sauron or Saruman!). Meanwhile, to stay up and in good (mind) health, I read The Lord of the Rings for my second time. The first one was during those years in which Jackson’s movies were a revolution for the special effects and overall commitment to a grandiose project (I think he was one of the first, in recent times, who reconsidered movies for cinema theaters to be divided into several chapters). Then, my father bet with me that I was unable to read all the trilogy in one month. Actually, I read it in less time, and I won my prize. Anyway, during 2013 I had the chance to start systematically working on my war studies and philosophy of war (it is from there that intelligence came up, but that was two years later). As SF was already fully operative, I decided to write something I esteemed crazy to be beyond any imagination (and hopefully be extensively read), an “Analytic philosophy of The Lord of the Rings.” It turned to be an entire enquiring on the issue. It is sufficiently long to be a book. Where did I land with it? Anywhere, specifically. I mean, it is read but not as I imagined. Did I make any money out of it? It is completely free! However, life is always unpredictable and this doesn’t mean is bad. As many times in my life, I start with a project, and after it, I ask myself if other people can be interested in it. That’s how I met Claudio. Indeed, I found (with my personal awe) that many other people studied Tolkien philosophically. Now a PhD in philosophy, Claudio wasn’t just one among many. He was (and is) one of the leading scholars on Tolkien studies in Italy and even abroad. So, I sent him my text, and he quickly replied (something already astonishing in certain contexts and countries). From that moment on, we developed a warm intellectual friendship. Claudio Testi is a first-class scholar on Tolkien and Thomas Aquinas and formal logic. His books are very carefully written. At the same time, Claudio is also a relentless organizer of talks, conferences, and public discussions. I met him several times in Bologna and Modena, where I was kindly invited by him and Marco Prati (who I take the chance to greets) for presenting my research on the philosophy of war, which were very warmly received with a lengthy Q&A. I can only invite all the readers to discover Claudio’s work. Please feel free to look at the Tomistic Institute, centered in Modena but influential at a national level. Without further ados, it is then with my distinct pleasure to publish the interview on Scuola Filosofica – for those who don’t know it yet; it is one of the leading cultural blogs in Italy. In the name of Scuola Filosofica Team, our readers, and myself, Giangiuseppe Pili, Claudio: thank you!
1# How would you present yourself to the readers and Philosophical School (Scuola Filosofica)?
[I believe] one tries to improve the world he lives in both materially and culturally.
I am an entrepreneur and the director of a commercial company with 40 employees. I try to improve materially and socially the environment in which I operate through concrete responsible actions. Meanwhile, as an intellectual, I know that knowledge for knowledge’s sake is human beings’ greatest activity. As it is useless, it is really free. For this reason, along with other friends, I founded Philosophical Institute of Tomistic Studies (in 1988) [Istituto Filosofico di Studi Tomistici] and the Italian Association of Tolkien Studies (in 2014) [Associazione Italiana per gli Studi Tolkeniani], in which I hold executive positions.
I’m tremendously excited to publish this wonderful interview with Kira Vrist Rønn, senior lecturer at University College Copenhagen. Professor Vrist Rønn published extensively about the philosophy of intelligence. Specifically, she worked on the epistemology of intelligence and intelligence ethics. These two topics are indeed the core of “Intelligence & Interview N.20”. Though practically oriented, the intelligence studies include an important and – I would add – fundamental theoretical component. Intelligence theory is indeed crucial to understand the practical aspects of the intelligence profession. Is objectivity possible in intelligence analysis? What is intelligence? Is intelligence ethics possible, or is it an unbearable oxymoron? Is intelligence an art or a science? To reply to all these questions, we need to bring philosophical concepts to clarify what intelligence is. Professor Vrist Rønn was a pioneer in this research, and she authored and edited several works (see below). Given my long-lasting research interest in both epistemology and ethics of intelligence, I can only be thrilled by publishing this thought-provoking interview. Recently, Intelligence & Interview N.19 already touched on the epistemology of intelligence. But that was a starter, also considering the different main topics of that issue. This interview goes deeper on the epistemology and ethics of intelligence. Then, it is with my distinct pleasure to publish the interview on Scuola Filosofica – for those who don’t know it yet, it is one of the leading cultural blogs in Italy. In the name of Scuola Filosofica Team, our readers, and myself, Giangiuseppe Pili, Kira: thank you!
Carissimi lettori e carissime lettrici di Scuola Filosofica, è con piacere che annunciamo un importante sviluppo nel panorama culturale italiano. La Società Italiana di intelligence, sorta nel 2018 per promuovere il riconoscimento dell’intelligence quale materia di studio nelle università del nostro Paese, ha costituito le sezioni regionali. Le strutture regionali si articolano con una presidenza ricoperta da un docente universitario e una segreteria regionale da uno studioso o competente del settore. Il profilo dei responsabili conferma come l’intelligence rappresenti un originale e innovativo punto di incontro di saperi accademici nonché di competenze e interessi professionali e sociali diversi. I compiti delle sedi regionali riguardano la promozione dell’immagine delle attività della Società, la diffusione dello studio dell’intelligence negli atenei, la cura dei rapporti con i soci, la promozione e l’organizzazione di eventi scientifici e culturali, la presentazione di iniziative e di libri, l’organizzazione di eventi di formazione qualificati come seminari, corsi, master.
This is the eleven official interview on intelligence, technology, and philosophy, now called “Intelligence & Interview”! In this interview, we will bring you to know more about the Canadian Association for Security & Intelligence based in Vancouver. The interviewed is professor Candyce Kelshall, an expert on intelligence, military, and law enforcement. Since I discovered CASIS-Vancouver, I immediately started to closely follow its (many) activities, updates, and forthcoming events. Then, I was particularly pleased to have the opportunity to interview professor Kelhsall on CASIS so as to bring the Canadian Association and professor Kelshall’s experience to our readers. Then, it is with my distinct pleasure to publish the interview on Scuola Filosofica – for those who don’t know it yet, is one of the leading philosophical blogs in Italy. In the name of Scuola Filosofica Team, our readers, and myself, Giangiuseppe Pili, Candyce: thank you!
Il segreto dell’intelligence direttamente dalle analisi del mondo angloamericano. Dalla teoria dell’intelligence al suo modello, un saggio esplorativo e per la prima volta presentata al panorama italiano un’analisi dell’intelligence tra USA, UK e Italia. Gli intelligence studies tra Italia e resto del mondo vengono qui dettagliatamente presentati in modo chiaro, informato e incalzante dai due autori, professor Mario Caligiuri, massimo esperto di intelligence in Italia e oltre, e Dr Giangiuseppe Pili, prolifico autore a livello nazionale e internazionale. Gli autori offrono una prospettiva unica e comparativa sull’intelligence tra l’Italia, gli USA e UK mettendo in rilievo le tematiche, gli autori, gli studiosi e i modelli dell’intelligence tra due continenti e due concezioni del mondo. Una ricerca appassionata, documentata e illuminante per portare al lettore italiano le affascinanti sfaccettature della massima ricerca mondiale sulla natura e sulle cause dell’intelligence. Una intrigante ricostruzione, unica per prospettiva e dettaglio, sul mondo scientifico dell’intelligence internazionale. Vediamo allora di cosa si tratta.
I am simply excited to publish this interview with Efren Torres, an intelligence practitioner and scholar, expert on intelligence analysis, open source intelligence (OSINT), and intelligence broadly understood. I had the pleasure to meet Efren several times at ISA and IAFIE conferences. I must confess that his ISA 2019 panel was one of the best I ever heard – and the competition is quite high! Indeed, the intelligence studies is still mainly interested in grounding and understanding public intelligence, namely intelligence as a state institution(s). Efren Torres is the first who started to push the experience of the private sector forward also in academic contexts. Efren is a person able to wear several hats at the same time with elegance and quality. Indeed, he is an intelligence practitioner, scholar, trainer, and educator. This interview explores several hot topics from the nature of OSINT to some open issues inside intelligence education. What else can I add to this fantastic premises? Then, it is with my distinct pleasure to publish the interview on Scuola Filosofica – for those who don’t know it yet, is one of the leading philosophical blogs in Italy. In the name of Scuola Filosofica Team, our readers, and myself, Efren: thank you!
Ebbene sì! Con mio grandissimo orgoglio segnalo l’uscita del mio settimo libro edito per Rubbettino, una delle migliori case editrici italiane e leading publisher per la sezione intelligence e security studies!Intelligence studies – Un’analisi comparata tra l’Italia e il mondo anglo-americano, è un lavoro innovativo scritto col massimo esperto di intelligence italiano, Professor Mario Caligiuri, che ringrazio per aver sempre creduto in me e per aver deciso di lavorare insieme a questo ambizioso progetto tra Italia, Stati Uniti e UK. Qui riporto la sinossi del libro sperando che esso possa aprire una nuova finestra nel panorama degli studi sull’intelligence in Italia!
Andrew, Christopher; Gordievsky, Oleg; (1991), KGB, London: Sceptre.